Denver Broncos tight end Greg Dulcich enters the 2024 season with a mix of tantalizing potential and lingering questions. After showing flashes of brilliance as a rookie, his 2023 season was marred by inconsistency and injury. Now, with the arrival of offensive guru Sean Payton, fantasy managers are eager to see if Dulcich can finally break out. This article dives deep into Dulcich’s fantasy outlook, analyzing his strengths, weaknesses, and the potential impact of Payton’s system, offering a comprehensive guide for your 2024 fantasy drafts.
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Dulcich’s Potential: A Fantasy Tight End Enigma
Dulcich’s rookie season offered glimpses of his upside. He delivered double-digit fantasy points in four games, showcasing his ability to make big plays. He commanded a respectable 17.2% target share, suggesting he was a key part of the passing game. However, his average of 8.6 fantasy points per game reveals a frustrating inconsistency. This erratic performance, combined with nagging injuries, left fantasy managers wondering about his true potential. His 2023 season further muddied the waters, with four healthy scratches raising concerns about his role within the offense. The presence of Adam Trautman and Chris Manhertz added to the uncertainty, creating a crowded tight end room in Denver.
Payton’s Impact: A Catalyst for Dulcich’s Breakout?
The arrival of Sean Payton injects a dose of optimism into Dulcich’s fantasy outlook. Payton has a history of transforming tight ends into fantasy stars, with six top-10 fantasy tight end seasons since 2011. His offenses frequently feature tight ends prominently, suggesting that Dulcich could see a significant increase in targets. Payton’s statement, “He’s got traits that are exciting,” (Source: Video on YouTube from Denver Broncos) further fuels the hype, suggesting that the coach sees something special in the young tight end.
Will the “Joker” Role Unleash Dulcich?
Payton has hinted at utilizing Dulcich in a versatile “joker” role, similar to how he deployed Darren Sproles in New Orleans. This would involve moving Dulcich around the formation, creating mismatches against linebackers and safeties. If Dulcich can thrive in this role, his target share could skyrocket, potentially transforming him into a weekly fantasy starter. However, it’s crucial to remember that Payton’s history with tight ends is a mixed bag. While some have flourished, others have faded into obscurity. There is debate on how effective the “joker” role will be.
Navigating the Competition
Dulcich won’t have the field to himself. He’ll be competing for targets with Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and the emerging Marvin Mims Jr. While Payton’s system often favors tight ends, Dulcich still needs to carve out a consistent role. Some experts believe that his athleticism and route-running ability could give him an edge, but it remains a key factor to monitor.
Health Concerns: A Lingering Question Mark
Hamstring issues have plagued Dulcich throughout his career, raising concerns about his durability. While Payton expressed confidence in Dulcich’s participation in training camp (May), his injury history cannot be ignored. Staying healthy will be paramount to his success in 2024. Fantasy managers must closely monitor his progress in training camp and preseason, looking for any signs of recurring hamstring problems.
Data Deep Dive: Unpacking Dulcich’s Metrics
Analyzing Dulcich’s rookie season statistics reveals a player with untapped potential. His 11.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT) ranked second among tight ends with 50+ targets, highlighting his downfield prowess. He also ranked third in deep targets (12) and seventh in air yards share (18.6%). These metrics suggest that he has the ability to be a big-play threat. However, his PFF receiving grade (67.6, 18th among TEs with 40+ targets) and yards per route run (1.30, 20th) indicate areas for improvement. This inconsistency is reflected in his TE38 ranking for 2024.
Draft Day Decision: Weighing the Risks and Rewards
Dulcich’s current ADP positions him as a potential late-round steal. He possesses the talent to significantly outperform his draft position, but the risks are undeniable. His injury history, competition for targets, and the uncertainty surrounding his role in Payton’s offense make him a high-risk, high-reward pick. Fantasy managers must carefully weigh these factors before investing a valuable draft pick.
The Verdict: Proceed with Calculated Optimism
Greg Dulcich presents a compelling case study for fantasy managers in 2024. Sean Payton’s arrival and the potential “joker” role could unlock his breakout potential, but his injury history and competition for targets introduce significant risk. His current ADP presents a tempting opportunity for those willing to gamble on his upside. Closely monitoring his health, role in the offense, and connection with Russell Wilson will be crucial for making informed fantasy decisions. While uncertainty remains, the potential rewards make Dulcich a player to watch closely as the season approaches.
